Stats don’t lie… Above or below assessed?

Two posts ago we showed that there was a shift in the trend in 2018 and units went from selling above asking to selling below asking. Last post we showed that the trend also followed the sold price vs assessed price. However, we did not plot the percentage of units selling above or below assessed. That’s what we’ll do in this post.

The data is the same that Johnny Oshika and I discussed in the last post, so we’ll still cover March 2018 to March 2019.

Disclaimer: We did not curate all the data and assume no responsibility for missing points or errors. We just wanted to get a read of the trend in prices. Take any specific information carefully and do your own analysis if you are in the process of making a big decision.

Above or below assessed

The plot below shows the sold price vs assessed price for March 2018 to March 2019. The assessed price of the year in which the unit was sold was used as reference. Note that overall assessed prices went up in 2019, so that’s why a big jump in units selling below assessed price took place in January 2019. For more details using one year only as reference see our last post.

Only REBGV cities included

Sold date vs entry date

The REBGV reports sales days after the sale actually took place. In discussions with Phil Moore, former president of the REBGV, it appears that a sale is entered in the system when the subjects of the offer are removed. So a typical workflow is the following:

I wanted to look at the delay between sold date and entry date. This plot shows the distribution of the delay.

The average delay is 14 days, the standard deviation is 16 days. This means that when we look at the sale numbers of a given month from the REBGV, we are looking at only a portion of the sales of that month. For the sales reported in March, for example the following chart shows the percentage of units that actually sold in March was ~61%, the rest of the sales were from February (~36%) or before (~2%)

Percentage of units that were reported in March 2019 that sold in March 2019 (blue), in February (Orange), in January (gray) or before (yellow) (NOTE: This chart was updated to correct a small error)

This explains partially the delay we see in some of the benchmarks and other analysis.

Summary

In March 2018 more than 70% of the units sold above asking price. In March 2019, more than 64% of the units are selling below asking price.

Since there is a delay in reporting a sale of the unit, we will have to look at the reports from April and May to get a better sense on how spring is actually shaping up.

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